FREE DOWNLOAD Ê The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable

READ & DOWNLOAD The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable

FREE DOWNLOAD Ê The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable í  A black swan is an event positive or negative that is deemed improbable yet causes massive conseuences In this groundbreaking and prophetic book Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world and ye A black swan is an event positive or negative that is deemed improbable yet causes massive conseuences In this groundbreaking and prophetic book Taleb shows in a. This is a book that raises a number of very important uestions but chief among them is definitely the uestion of how the interplay between a good idea and an insufferable author combine to effect the reading experience This author is an a hole Full stop He's dismissive chronically insecure unstructured and hostile towards his detractors He engages in what may be the lowest form of rhetoric by pre emptively attacking any critics even before they've had the chance to come forward as too stupid or blinkered to follow his argument He's contemptuous towards entire disciplines economics law social science without making much attempt to engage with the concepts he's critiuing beyond the broadest levels of generality He's got a huge chip on his shoulder towards the scientificacademic establishment especially the Nobel committee try taking a shot every time he makes an off hand tangential attack on Nobel and you've made your Friday night Worst of all he's endlessly digressive and couches his digressions in the language of capricious genius rather than simple bad writing he hits the occasional sweetnote with these tangents but if anyone else who has read this thing cover to cover wanted to put a bullet in Yvgenia feel free to step on up He's hard to likeIt's unfortunate because at the core of all of the go nowhere anecdotes and borderline psychobabble is a good analysis on how people are psychologically and socially ill euipped to handle unexpected outlier events which he persistently desperately refers to as Black Swans one of approximately 3000 new bits of not too essential terminology he's trying to appropriate for himself and can't learn from our mistakes It's a wonderful theory for a book one third the length of this one and I'm happy to admit that some of the better moments were probably missed by this reader simply because of the exhaustion of filtering through the surplusageI am sure that the failure to give this book five or six stars the possibility of a six star rating might itself be something of a Black Swan is due to my own marginal intellect The author has made it clear that any other explanation would be entirely unpredictable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ´ 8 FREE DOWNLOAD

Playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world and yet we especially the experts are blind to them In this second edition Taleb has. The first time through I listened to this book with my husband usually while I was cooking Although I tried to stop and mark important passages I ended up thinking the book was not very systematic The second time through chapter by chapter the method in his madness is apparent I continued to think Taleb is a popularizer than an innovator But even if so that's not so shabby He's trying to revolutionize the way we think and the we rehearse that the better Nassim Nicholas Taleb is working the same territory as Daniel Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow While they both have us investigating our thinking for Kahneman it's to make us own up while Taleb has direct emphasis on avoiding disasterHe would like for us to realize our overuse of normal curve thinking which makes us minimize risk and have no expectations out of the ordinary like the turkey whose experience all goes to show how human beings love him and care about him and prove it by feeding him until Thanksgiving day arrives and he's dinnerThe normal curve tells us that the further out from the mean we go the rarity of unusual events rapidly increases Fine when it applies We are not going to meet any 20 foot tall people or anyone living to 150 years old But the normal curve often doesn't apply We can't predict which books will be best sellers or how how the sales count will go on one of them We can't predict when a war will occur or just how one will transpire The world is not fair Unfairness and ineuality are no epiphenomena but part and parcel of reality Even in evolution the fittest survive thrive and have offspring Take writing before literacy every town crier and performer had his day With written methods all the little guys are out of work Then one book may become a bestseller It leaves even the other books in the dust And when the author of the bestseller writes another book it'll get attention than those who didn't write a bestsellerWhen we think normal curves apply but they don't we are confusing what the world is like with how we would like it to be We are shoving reality into the Procrustean bed of our idealized thinking That distorts our vision of reality By keeping an open mind at least we won't be walking blindly into risk We can't prevent the unexpected but we can at least turn the black swans into grey swans We are like the 13th fairy at the Sleeping Beauty's christening We can't do away with the angry fairy's curse but we can mitigate it Grey swan not blackThe difficulty with many kinds of prognosticators in our world is that they are spinning theories that purport to predict but their theories are stories and their stories connect the plot points and only sound as though they are predictive We are lulled or even worse misled We listen according to our preferred belief system We listen to what we want to hear confirmatory listening We actively cherry pick reality to make it fit what we want to believe The solution Try the opposite finding something that doesn't fit A plethora of confirmatory evidence is exactly what the turkey had before Thanksgiving Taleb lauds two unexpected types of practitioners military people and financial managers They will know if their predictions are wrong or right If they are wrong they'll have to face the music Their predictions matter Not so the world of talking heads and stuffed shirts they just adjust their stories and keep on goingWhat those stories are are predictions of the pastIf you see an ice cube sitting on a table you can predict the future it will melt into a little puddle of water But if you see a puddle on the table and that's all you see there could be a thousand stories of what it is and how it came to be there The correct explanation may be 1001 or one which will never be foundIt could be that angry old fairy meltedAs I said most of the stories are not explanations But theories are sticky Once you have one you have a hard time seeing beyond it remembering that sometimes no theory is best if the theory is wrong So he recommends an empirical approach with art and craft a less grand theory and always an eye toward outcomesRight at the end it occurred to me that this is religion He tells you how to sustain yourself in the absence of worldly support how to stand up to others and say your piece how to wait and be patient and about the merits of surrounding yourself with like minded soulsTo close a rousing rendition of Kipling's If He can't teach like Kahneman but he gets it said

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The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly ImprobableAdded a new essay On Robustness and Fragility which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world2nd Edition With a new essay On Robustness and Fragility. Taleb is a pretty good writer but I thought this was a very uneven book As I read it I was constantly alternating between Wow that's a really great insight a great way of presenting it and Gee who doesn't realize that or even That just seems flat out wrongIt's a book that should have been read by the uantitative analysts uants working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early 2008; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt down that followed The problem with all their uantitative analysis was as Taleb rightly points out that it assumed that everything that could happen in the markets belonged to the domain of bell curve events and that hence probabilities could be computed for any possible market outcome But Black Swan events very rare not even things we think about happening and not linked to the factors that determine day to day market swings do occur they are of course unpredictable and they can have massive effects Some sorts of unpredictable events such as unexpected conflict flareups deaths of influential national leaders are not Black Swan events because they are events we know about and they are not really unexpected only the timing is in doubt Others the real Black Swans such as 911 and the derivatives bubble have effects that play out over yearsBut really other than as a cautionary tale for those whose job it is to predict unpredictable things on a daily basis these observations probably don't surprise most people who have thought much about the nature of reality and our grasp of the future No one that I know owns a crystal ball Without one even broad outlines of the future that we believe are pretty certain still have an element of riskuncertainty; and perhaps a significant element than we realizeAs the esteemed Donald not Trump the other one pointed out in one of his rare truly insightful comments there are the unknowns that we know about and the unknowns that we don't know about It's the latter part of reality where the Black Swans live Of course they also live in Australia which is how the phrase got its meaning